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JULY 19,  2016

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION – DAY TWO

A day that began badly and ended pretty well.

The morning news was dominated by Melania Trump's appropriation of a few lines from Michelle Obama's 2008 speech before the Democratic National Convention.  The mainstream (liberal) media was gleeful.  The Trump campaign handled the issue badly, refusing to own up to the obvious plagiarism and offering all kinds of ridiculous excuses.  They forgot the old rule of politics:  It's not the crime, it's the cover-up.

The stonewalling worked to a degree.   Commentators pretty much stopped talking about the incident during the afternoon, but I'm afraid Melania's image has been damaged, at least in the press. 

Donald Trump was formally nominated for president late in the day.  So he's now the official nominee of the Republican Party.  The nomination has thus far produced no move toward party unity.  There is clearly bitterness in some factions of the GOP toward Trump's nomination, and his often heavy-handed tactics toward opponents.   There is also considerable doubt that he's a true conservative.

The evening was devoted to speeches, none of which will be remembered through Saturday.   Trump delivered a live/remote brief speech to the delegates thanking them for his nomination, but no news was made.  The main events were two speeches by his children, Tiffany Trump and Donald Trump Jr.  Tiffany, who is in her early 20s, was poised, dignified and affecting.  Everyone loved her.  Donald Jr. gave a more political speech, and proved remarkably skillful and powerful.  He's a natural political speaker who can go far, even if his father doesn't win.

Tomorrow night (Wednesday) we get Ivanka Trump, the true star of the family. 

Trump's family is his not-so-secret weapon.  Every member is more likable than he is.

It's very hard to read how the convention might affect viewers.  It's an unusual year, and voters have done odd things...like nominate Donald Trump.  The strong unpopularity ratings for both major-party candidates are extraordinary, and make normal political analyses suspect.  As I like to put it, we have a choice between Bonnie and Clyde.  I don't recall any presidential contest in which both candidates were so disliked. 

There is only one event at this convention that might create some kind of serious change in the thinking of the electorate, and that is Trump's acceptance speech.  There are reports that the speech is in chaos, but those reports may not be accurate.  Trump has to nail it.  He has to dispel the notion that he's some kind of shoot-from-the-hip, unsophisticated blowhard from New York.  He must lay out what he would do as president, without losing the sense of citizen indignation that many voters find attractive.  If he blows this speech, and he can, I don't see much chance for recovery.  It is not enough for him to wait for Hillary to defeat herself.  She may not follow her ususual self-destructive script.

July 19,  2016     Permalink 

NOTE TO READERS:  In my comments this morning about the Melania Trump plagiarism story, I clearly contradicted observations I made on the same subject late last night.  Absolutely intentional.  In studying the matter further, and listening to observers I respect, I came to a different conclusion.  It is plagiarism, and it is significant.  The comments by Professor Sabato were particularly persuasive.

ANOTHER TERROR ATTACK – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  While we had our eyes firmly focused on politics, Germany was experiencing a new attack by an Islamic terrorist.  Fortunately, in this case no one was killed.  From BBC:

The so-called Islamic State has released a video purporting to show an Afghan asylum seeker making threats before attacking a German train.

The 17-year-old injured four people with an axe and knife, one critically, in the attack in Wuerzburg on Monday evening. He was shot dead by police.

In the video, a young man brandishing a knife says he is an "IS soldier" preparing for a suicide mission.

German officials say they later found a hand-painted IS flag in his room.

The teenager reportedly shouted the Islamic phrase "Allahu akbar" ("God is great") during the attack.
The self-styled news agency of IS said he had launched the attack "in answer to the calls to target the countries of the coalition fighting the Islamic State".

The attack comes days after a lorry ploughed into a crowd in Nice in France, killing 84 people. The self-styled Islamic State group said one of its followers had carried out that attack.

COMMENT:  What is remarkable is the sheer number of attacks in recent months, including one in Orlando, Florida.  Expect more.  They have the potential to impact our presidential campaign and possibly determine the winner.

July 19, 2016        Permalink

NEW POLL, NEW GRIMNESS FOR HILLARY –  The Democrats have a YUGE problem with Hillary.  The more people see her, the less they like her.  From NBC News: 

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are virtually tied in the polls as the Republican National Convention convenes in Cleveland this week. Clinton now just barely edges out Trump in a direct head-to-head match-up, 46 percent to 45 percent. This is slightly down from the 3-point lead she held in last week's tracking poll numbers.

The contest is also competitive in a four-way general election scenario between Clinton (39 percent), Trump (40 percent), Libertarian Gary Johnson (10 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (5 percent). These results are according to the latest from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll conducted online from July 11 through July 17, 2016 among 9,353 adults who say they are registered to vote.

COMMENT:  The Trump campaign has made a number of unforced errors, but Trump is still doing very well...in comparison to Hillary.  If the Dems had a better-liked candidate, I'd imagine that candidate would have a clear lead. 

It's very early.  If Trump can pull off the rest of the convention without mistakes, he might pick up a bounce.  The Dems meet next week.  Of course, they, too, can pick up a bounce, and they generally run better conventions.

July 19, 2016       Permalink

"ANOTHER NICE MESS" – AT 9:22 A.M. ET:  The phrase from Laurel and Hardy applies this morning.  We should have been talking about how wonderful Melania Trump was in her speech in Cleveland – gracious, elegant, warm, lovely.  Instead, journalists are talking about two passages from the speech last night that were lifted from Michelle Obama's address to the 2008 Democratic convention.

Make no mistake about it.  This is plagiarism.  As Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia said this morning, it is serious plagiarism.  We noted the similarities in our post last night about the Republican convention.  CNN ran a side-by-side videotape comparison of Michelle and Melania.  It is devastating.  No doubt about it.

As usual, the Trump campaign has committed an unforced error.  It has, thus far, handled it horribly – sending people out to say that Melania was using common language.  Come on, own up to it.  In all probability this was the work – accidentally or intentionally – of a staff member who helped Melania with her speech.  She's a highly intelligent woman who speaks several languages.  It's inconceivable that she'd approve of plagiarism.

What must be done:  Melania Trump must herself hold a news briefing and take responsibility for the error.  She should explain how it happened.  She must apologize.  If it was the work of a staff member, that staffer should be encouraged to offer his or her resignation.  This must be an example of how the Trump campaign handles a crisis.  If the campaign is open and forthcoming, it will blow over, especially if the truth turns out to be a simple transcription error, which can happen.

Joe Biden plagiarized in his 1988 campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Barack Obama blatantly plagiarized from Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick in 2008, and admitted it.

Let's put this to bed properly.  The Trump people know that the press is largely against them and will milk this for everything it's worth.

July 19,  2016     Permalink

JULY 18,  2016

REPUBLICAN CONVENTION – DAY ONE

I have just finished watching the endless analysis of the day's events inflicted on us by Fox and CNN.  Such overintellectualization of trivia I have rarely heard. 

There was only one event at the convention tonight that Americans truly cared about, and that was the appearance by Melania Trump, the candidate's wife.

And she delivered. 

She was introduced by the candidate in the shortest speech he ever made, and then showed real star quality.  No one will remember what she said, but she was captivating, gorgeous and stylish.  I think she'll be an asset to Trump by her very presence.  Americans know that their choice for "first spouse" is between Melania and Slick Willy.  She wins in a landslide.

I did watch some of the other speeches.  Some were fine, some a bit strident.  I just don't think viewers pay much attention to them.  It was Melania they wanted to see, and I'd love to see the ratings. 

UPDATE:  I see that some critics are pointing out a few similarities between Melania's speech and the one delivered by Michelle Obama at the 2008 Democratic convention.  Yes, there are a few similarities, but nothing particularly scandalous.  From Fox:

The remarks came toward the beginning of her speech, which was otherwise distinct from the address that Michelle Obama gave when her husband, then-Sen. Barack Obama, was being nominated for president.

"From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise, that you treat people with respect. They taught and showed me values and morals in their daily life,” Melania Trump said in her speech in Cleveland.

In Michelle Obama's 2008 speech in Denver, she said: "And Barack and I were raised with so many of the same values: like, you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond, that you do what you say you're going to do, that you treat people with dignity and respect, even if you don't know them and even if you don't agree with them."

Another passage with some similarities that follows two sentences later in Melania Trump’s speech addresses her attempts to instill those values in her son.

"We need to pass those lessons on to the many generations to follow," she said. "Because we want our children in this nation to know that the only limit to your achievements is the strength of your dreams and your willingness to work for them."

In the first lady's 2008 speech, she said, "Barack and I set out to build lives guided by these values and to pass them onto the next generation, because we want our children — and all children in this nation — to know that the only limit to the height of your achievements is the reach of your dreams and your willingness to work hard for them."

No doubt the Obama speech was studied by Melania or a speechwriter, and there were those similarities.  It would be better had they not been there, but I don't see this as real plagiarism.  Many words were changed, the ideas were pretty standard.  Won't help Melania, though, as the Dems and their friends will make this into World War III.

July 18, 2016       Permalink

ON THE BUTTON – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:26 A.M. ET:   Victor Davis Hanson has some suggestions for President Obama to ease the racial tensions in the country, tensions that Obama has made worse with his hectoring comments.  From NRO: 

In future presidential editorialization about the shooting deaths of police officers, perhaps the president himself might first offer a few “words matter” gestures that would reassure law enforcement, to use another Obama phrase, that he “has their back.” Here are just three low-bar proposals for how to discourage those who glorify or advocate lethal violence against criminal-justice officers:

No longer invite into the White House any leaders whose affiliated members have marched chanting their desire to kill police officers (e.g., “What do we want? Dead cops” / “Pigs in a blanket; fry ’em like bacon”).

Do not consult with any self-appointed leader in the White House whose past has included overt and implicit calls to shoot police officers (e.g., Al Sharpton: “I believe in offing the pigs. Well, they got pigs out here. You ain’t offed one of them. What I believe in, I do. Do what you believe in. Or shut up and admit you’ve lost your courage and your guts to stand up”).

Do not invite into the White House any artists whose work has glorified the killing of officers of the criminal-justice system (e.g., Lamar Kendrick’s To Pimp a Butterfly album, one of whose songs was dubbed by Obama as his favorite of 2015), whose cover depicts a group of African-American youth celebrating with champagne and cash on the White House lawn over the corpse of a white judge with his eyes X-ed out).

I don’t think that is too much to ask of the president of the United States — and perhaps such simple gestures might do a lot more for police reconciliation than the usual Obama summits and community “dialogues.”

COMMENT:  Great suggestions, unlikely to be followed.  Obama has six months and two days left in office.  He'll probably double down on everything he's doing, and will do much damage in the process.

July 18, 2016       Permalink 

BULLETIN – ANOTHER ACQUITTAL IN BALTIMORE –  AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  Amidst all the talk about police-community relations, another officer has been acquitted in Baltimore in connection with the death of Freddie Gray.   From Fox: 

DEVELOPING: A judge in Baltimore Monday acquitted the highest-ranking officer charged in the death of Freddie Gray, marking the fourth trial that prosecutors failed to win.

Lt. Brian Rice faced charges of involuntary manslaughter, reckless endangerment and misconduct in office.

Gray died a week after suffering a spinal injury in a police van last year, touching off protests and rioting.

From the Baltimore Sun:

Prosecutors in Baltimore have failed for the fourth time to secure a conviction in the Freddie Gray case, with Circuit Judge Barry Williams acquitting Lt. Brian Rice of all charges related to Gray's arrest and death.

Williams cleared Rice, 42, of involuntary manslaughter, reckless endangerment and misconduct in office in a downtown Baltimore courtroom on Monday morning. The judge had dismissed a second-degree assault charge at the trial's midpoint, and prosecutors dropped a second misconduct charge at the start.

Rice selected a bench trial rather than a jury trial, putting his legal fate in Williams' hands. He was was fourth of six officers charged in the case to go to trial.

Williams previously acquitted two other officers — Edward Nero and Caesar Goodson Jr. — of all charges in May and June, respectively. A fourth officer, William Porter, had a mistrial in December after a 12-member jury could not reach a consensus on any of the charges against him.

Rice's acquittal is likely to renew calls for Baltimore State's Attorney Marilyn J. Mosby to drop the remaining charges in the case, including from the union that represents the city's rank-and-file officers.

COMMENT:  Please note that Barry Williams is an African-American judge.  His decisions reflect a reading of the facts, whereas the actions against the officers by Marilyn J. Mosby seemed to be a tribute to the mob. 

Once again we have the results of a rush to judgment.  After Gray's death, many fingers were pointed at the police, and President Obama weighed in with his finger as well.  Now we see the facts.

Don't expect any apology from the White House or Marilyn Mosby.  These are political cases, not real cases.

July 18, 2016       Permalink

CONVENTION STARTS – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  The Republican National Convention starts today in Cleveland.  Tensions are high both inside and outside the hall.  Outside, there is concern about violence.  Understandable.  Inside there is concern about the quality of the presidential nominee.  Understandable.

Bill Kristol, one of the leaders of the anti-Trump movement within the Republican Party, calls Trump the worst nominee in its history.  ("If Trump is nominated on Thursday, it will not be a grand day for a grand old party. For it will have nominated the worst nominee in its history.")  Well, hard to say, but the concerns about Trump are real, and are grave.

In my view, the convention is Trump's last chance to president a positive, presidential message.  True, the matchup polls between Trump and Clinton have tightened recently, but only because Clinton's numbers have shrunk.  Trump's have not increased.

This should be an easy presidential year for Republicans, running against a Democratic candidate who is intensely disliked, and has suffered withering criticism from the FBI director, no less.  And yet, it's a struggle, for Donald Trump has spectacularly high negatives, and has the remarkable capacity to be truly obnoxious. 

Trump has some good ideas, has clearly hit a nerve with a part of the electorate, but this is a man who could mess up a wedding kiss – and he's had plenty of practice.  He has run as a protest candidate, but has never made much of a case for a Trump presidency.  He has needlessly insulted everyone from Megyn Kelly to the Hispanic, female, Republican governor of New Mexico.  Many party leaders will not show up at his convention.

His acceptance speech this week is his last chance.  He has turned off many, many people, and now he must turn them on with an acceptance speech that presents his positive side, a vision for America, and a speech that is short on personal attacks against Clinton.  He must say to the American people, in effect, "I build."  Not, "I tear down."

Can he do it?  If he doesn't, he may get a slight boost from the convention, but it may well be downhill after that, and Queen Hillary will get a four-year lease on the White House. 

July 18,  2016     Permalink